Lincoln

Case analysis

1. Situation (5 minutes)

1. First and last section
2. Is it problem, decision, or evaluation?
3. Do you have any ideas about the causal frameworks or criteria that might fit the solution?

1. Questions (15 minutes)

1. Problem

1. Who or what is the subject of a problem (e.g. manager, company, country)?
2. What is the problem?
3. Tring to account for a failure, a success, or something more ambiguous?
4. What is the significance of the problem to the subject?
5. Who is responsible for the problem (usually the protagonist)? And what does he need to know to do something about it?

1. Decision

1. What are the decision options?
2. Do any seem particularly strong or weak?
3. What is at stake in the decision?
4. What are the possible criteria? What is the most important criteria for this kind of decision?
5. Are any of the criteria explicitly discussed in the case (look at case headings)?

1. Evaluation

1. Who or what is being evaluated?
2. Who is responsible for evaluation?
3. What’s at stake?
4. What are possible criteria? What is most important criteria?
5. Any explicit criteria mentioned in case (check case headings)?

1. Hypothesis (45 mins)
2. Proof and action (40 minutes)

1. Go back with single purpose of bringing out more evidence that aligns with your hypothesis
2. Do calculations

1. Cost savings
2. Breakeven
3. NPV

1. Think about actionability  how would you implement the decision you are recommending? NEEDS TO BE SPECIFIC

1. Tangible actions and give thought to order of actions
2. An action plan is NOT a to-do list. It specifies which action is taken at a certain time and for what reason

1. Alternatives (15 min)

1. What is the greatest weakness of the hypothesis? What is the strongest alternative to it?

PROBLEMS

• 5 steps

• Problem definition
• Diagnosis – a summary statement of the important causes
• Cause-effect analysis – these causes acted in a certain way to produce these effects

• All about reasoning backward
• Must pull apart effects from causes; complex effects imply multiple issues

• Concepts and frameworks
• Actions

• Always consider the middle ground

• Extreme: auditors have misread the data
• Other side: auditors are right and company needs to be liquidated
• Middle: serious financial trouble but not the potentially terminal condition indicated by the auditors

• If told from protagonist’s POV, always consider their contribution to the problem
• As you try to come up with hypothesis by testing out causes:

• Helpful to distinguish between external and internal causes (e.g. inside problem unit and outside – industry, market, competitors)

• Work backwards from the protagonist

• Qualities he has – good and bad
• Make sure to state the “so what”
• He didn’t see the coming shift in terms of competition → not especially close to sales force
• Hasn’t rallied division to face real competition → no sense of urgency
• Doesn’t listen in meetings → deprives him of valuable info that can help him lead the division
• Given background, involved in technical but not curious about other functions of the division
• Market conditions → marketing needs to be closely coordinated with sales and plants and everyone needs to be in close communication

• Other causes

• Corporate – didn’t provide Rogers special training or support in his new position
• Set unrealistic financial targets

• Predecessor and clash of cultures

• Set up top-down organization with authoritarian leader at apex and “political and manipulative” managers underneat
• Rogers came from Allentown, which had a “close-knit” family culture..he can’t run the division in the same way

• Misalignment

• Top-down org has lost its linchpin, the authoritarian leader
• Incentives are different
• No clear definition of responsibility or accountability
• Discrepancy and inequality in the perceived importance of the functions in the divisionand at corporate
• Functions are physically dispersed in a way that doesn’t make sense for the work that needs to be done

PROBLEM

• Declining performance
• Rampant conflict
• Lack of coordination
• Stalled product development function
• Poor leadership

EXTERNAL CAUSES

• New terms of competition
• Corporate mistakes

INTERNAL CAUSES

• Rogers’ mistakes and limitations
• Cultural differences
• Conflict
• Misalignment

ACTION PLAN

• Address each one of the causes!

• Hire a coach with objective view
• Bring everyone together – shared urgency – everyone’s job can be at stake; make it front nad center
• Cultivate allies and involve the division in the shaping of a vision
• Get support of corporate using his relationships

DECISIONS

• Five elements to decision analysis

• Options
• Criteria
• Analysis of options
• Recommendation
• Actions

• Step 1: hunt for decision alternatives
• Step 2: criteria

• Cost and profitability
• Reliability of a manufacturing process

• Step 3: analysis of options

• Go through case looking at which info fits the criteria
• Financials: always compare co to industry sales

EVALUATIONS

• Should have a concisely expressed bottom-line conclusion
• Six elements to evaluation

• Criteria: financial, etc.
• Terms: good/bad, ineffective, effective
• Evaluative analysis: go through each criteria, building up evidence for the positives and negatives of each. It’s the comparative IMPORTANCE, not quantity of evidence that matters
• Bottom-line judgment
• Qualifications
• Actions

• Good leaders must:

• Communicate and motivate
• Translate business knowledge, technical knowledge, and awareness of the environment into decisions that further competitiveness

• Change leadership

1. Establish sense of urgency
2. Form a powerful guiding coalition
3. Create a vision
4. Communicate the vision
5. Empower others to act on the vision
6. Plan for and create short-term wins
7. Consolidate improvements and keep the momentum for change moving
8. Institutionalize the new approaches

ACTION PLAN

• Short term

• Use meeting as platform for acknowledging the major problems, convey sense of urgency, ask managers to work with him to find solutions
• Important to show the group he is listening, not just giving airtime and then imposing his solutions
• Start building a coalition and shaping a vision that reflects the new realities of the business. Rogers isn’t getting valuable info from his management grup that could alter his perceptions of the people in the division

• Longer term

• Needs to be clearer about the major obstacles that will take time to surmount
• Changing culture doesn’t happen overnight
• Alignment of incentives to get everyone pulling in the same direction

Writing an Exam

1. What – position statement
2. Why – evidence
3. How – action plan