George's T-Shirts

George sells t-shirts at special events and needs to decide how many to order for an upcoming concert. He has assessed the relative likelihood of his estimations based on possible attendance numbers. It is stated that “He decided to think in terms of three possibilities (a high, a medium, and a low value), specifically 80,000, 50,000, and 20,000 grandstand seats” (Bodily, Pg. 481). Based on these estimates, George can attempt to calculate a projected number of attendees who will want a

With the estimations, how many t-shirts should George order for the upcoming concert?

Analysis of the Company

George has seen his business be successful for the last six years. His t-shirts are said to be “Cleverly designed, well produced, and reasonably priced” (Bodily, Pg. 481). In the past, George has been somewhat conservative in how many t-shirts he has sold to vendors.

George is uncertain of the number of tickets that are to be sold for the concert. He knows that 20,000 tickets will be sold for sure, according to the case. “Ten percent of the attendees buy the shirts 6 out of 10 times, while sometimes five percent of the attendees purchase tickets, and 1 out of 10 times, fifteen percent of attendees purchase the shirts. It seems this side business have proved profitable and enjoyable for George” (Bodily, pg. 481). It can range from high, medium to low sales which could be 80,000, 50,000 to 20,000, respectively. After adding the standing area tickets, we can expect the new predictions as 40,000, 70,000 or 100,000.

Evaluation of Alternates (Quantitative and Qualitative)

George is facing a decision of how many shirts to order. His alternatives are to purchase 10,000, 7,500, or 5,000 shirts. These alternates have the ability to affect George’s profits. Because he is so unsure of the actual number of attendees, an

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